In theory, everything is simple: you are comparing its estimate of the probability by a factor bookie, and if it turns out that your assessment underestimated the bookmaker is an event that is overestimated by a factor of the object for Value Betting'a called simply Value, found! Mathematically, the test is whether this event Value or not, looks like this:

K x P> 1

where K - the coefficient of the bookmaker, P - your assessment of the likelihood (in the usual form, ie a number from 0 to 1).

Consider an example. Let the match Spartak - Wings of the Soviets to win reviews coefficient 4.50. By your own estimation, if all other conditions of 4 matches against Spartak Moscow in the Wings will win at least one, that is, do you assess the probability of winning Samara team as 0.25. Checking: 4.50 x 0.25 = 1.125> 1! Hence, the rate of winning wings in this case will Betting'om Value.

The concept of Value Betting differs from all other types of bets. Here, firstly, you theoretically should not worry about collecting statistical data about the opposition, to analyze the latest news from the camp teams, etc. - It is purely "mathematical" game (in parenthesis, I note that in order to correctly assess the chances of teams, information about them to own it is still necessary), which in theory guarantees you profit in the long game. To do this, "only" properly assess the probability of the outcome of matches. However, as has already been reviewed on this site, rates also did not reflect the real balance of power, so you can avoid, and in fact will always be allowed in his assessment of some error.

And secondly, you should not care about how absurd can look your bid. Another example: the rate that the current map, which will be removed from the deck of 52 cards is the ace of spades. "Normal", the player would never have started doing this bet: too few chances. However, if you are playing Value Betting, you should check the coefficients. And if it turns out that the coefficient on it is 60, it is already the object of your interest. In fact, the probability that the 52 cards will be pulled out the ace of spades is 1 / 52 = 0.0192. Checking: 60 x 0.0192 = 1.152> 1! And in fact, making 1000 rates for this event with coefficients satisfying the criterion Value Betting'a, you will have a profit!

Coefficient, a matching event for this strategy need not be exorbitant: the main thing that the criterion, and if he runs for the event with a coefficient of 1.50, then this event can also be set. However, the lower the ratio, the more influence the error in determining the probability assessment. In fact, for the coefficient of 5.00 the relative error in the determination of this assessment, which is equal to 10%, gives an absolute error of at least 0.0200 (as according to the criterion, the probability for Value Betting'a when this ratio can not be less than 0.20), while the coefficient 1.50, the same relative error already gives the absolute minimum 0.0667, ie to 3.3333 times (the same yields and the ratio). It is safe to say that the coefficients below 2.00 are almost never suitable for Value Betting'a: bookmakers are unlikely to overestimate when low rates (such coefficients are usually given for winning favorites, and they almost always initially underestimated), but high rates - often . In essence, the game against the favorites - this is the most that neither is on Value Betting.

The second task after determining the sites for Value Betting'a - the definition of the size of bets. The best idea here is to use fixed-size rate (say, $ 10 for each appropriate to the criterion of the event), but if you're unsure of what determines the evaluation of the likelihood of outcomes with sufficient accuracy, can be used criterion for Kelly, just take the interest is not the current, and from the initial bank. In this case it is better to underestimate the probability than to overestimate. Innovative financial strategies can be used here only as a catch up at a fairly high coefficients (so that the sum rate increases slightly with increasing number of iterations will catch up).

Remember that Value Betting - this strategy, calculate on dogosrochnuyu game, that is, in most cases, immediate profit, you do not get. And if you misjudge the probability of events, so wrong, that with sufficient frequency to select the Value Betting'a objects that are actually not suitable for this (alas, but check this can only be made at least 500 bets and looking at the balance sheet) , this game will lead to losses. So better to some time to practice on paper, without real money.

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